The year ahead is expected to bring renewed energy to the real estate market. Trreb forecasts 76,000 unit sales for 2025- an increase of 12.4 percent. The average price is projected to increase by 2.6 percent ($1,147,000) for all home types combined and we expect growth will be stronger for single family homes. A better supplied housing market should keep the average price growth at the rate of inflation.
Even with increased inventory, there is still a supply issue in the GTA. Municipalities are expected to encourage new developments in the ‘missing middle’ such as townhomes and duplexes as well as purpose built rentals.
For January, unit sales were down 7.9% while new listings are up 49%. The average price is $1,041,000 - up 1.5 percent over same time in 2024 and the average days on market are unchanged at 37.
The last rate decrease on January 24th was .25 percent- look for the next BOC announcement on March 12th to signal where the market is headed. The positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be temporarily reduced by consumer confidence around trade disruptions- we will need to wait and see. The average 5 year fixed mortgage rate is just above 4 percent- down over one full point from last year at this time.
Our Insights
Negative impacts on the GTA Market:
- The snowy weather! We dont like to ‘blame it on the weather’- but this year could be the exception
- Impact of a shifting political landscape will create some uncertainty for now
- How will addition of new tariffs affect the economy/job market
- Condos continue their downward price trend- affordability for first time buyers and the cost of money for investors continues to negatively impact the condo market
Positive impacts on the GTA Market:
- Pent up buyer demand from the past 2 years due to high interest rates and inflation. We are seeing buyers driven by declining interest rates finally return to the market
- We are approaching the Spring market which is typically the busiest time of year for real estate sales
- We look to a busier Spring market as the number of showings increase and increased competition amongst buyers is starting to show up
- The luxury segment (over $3 million in the GTA) finished 2024 up over 40 percent in the 3rd quarter compared to same time in 2023
If you are thinking of a move in 2025, contact us for a confidential, professional market valuation of your home. The best decisions are made with informed insights from real estate professionals who understand the local nuances of the market. Visit: www.laroseteam.com
