An in-depth look at the Greater Toronto Area housing market in early 2026.
After several years of correction and softening conditions, the Greater Toronto Area real estate market is widely being viewed as having reached the bottom of its current cycle — but what does that really mean for homeowners and sellers?
According to the latest MLS® market data for January and early February 2026, home prices across the GTA have continued to slide year-over-year, sales volumes remain weak, and inventory levels point to a sustained market shift — marking this moment as the lowest point in the recent housing cycle and prompting a critical question: Is now the right time to sell?
What the data says: Declining Prices and Slumping Sales…
Recent statistics show a clear downward trend in pricing across most property types:
• The average sold price across all property types was $973,289, down 6.5% compared to January 2025 — and the first time the average price has been below 1 million.
• All property types recorded price declines, with condo prices down nearly 10% from a year earlier.
Sales activity is also subdued:
• The GTA reported 3,082 home sales in January 2026, down 19.3% compared to January 2025.
• This trend stems from ongoing economic uncertainty and buyer caution — even as borrowing conditions have eased.
Inventory Is High… But Demand Is Soft
One of the clearest signs of a market at its lowest point is the shifting balance between supply and demand:
• Active listings in the GTA in January were elevated to nearly 5.8 months of supply — a level that signals a buyer’s market.
• While new listings have dipped slightly year-over-year, the number of homes for sale remains significantly higher relative to sales, keeping downward pressure on prices.
This shift has squeezed seller leverage, and homes are taking longer to sell — with average days on market rising compared to last year.
How Far Have Prices Fallen?
• Some datasets show total price declines of up to 25%–27% from peak values in early 2022.
• Even with these declines, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels — but the rapid decline has left many buyers and sellers reassessing their timing and expectations.
So… Is It the Right Time to Sell?
Determining whether now is the right time to sell depends largely on your own personal circumstances — but from a market perspective, several signals suggest this could be a strategic opportunity for some:
Inventory Still Elevated:
While elevated inventory typically favours buyers, it also means more choice which will attract more buyers.
Less Competition and Multiple Offers:
Properties are spending longer on market, and there are fewer bidding wars — making it an ideal environment for sellers who price strategically to encourage more offers. We have seen an uptick in activity over the past 2 weeks in many open houses and multiple offers being generated on properties that are priced sharp. Buyers are out there- we need to encourage them to come to the table.
Early Signs of Stabilization:
Several forecasts suggest the market will stabilize or slightly improve in 2026 as the cost of money is expected to remain at current rates. Properties that are packaged, priced and marketed well will achieve the best result.
Considering a move this year? Contact us for a confidential market evaluation of your property at 905 278-7355. Or join one of our Sellers Workshops here
